TBBuccaneers
0-5
23
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
1-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
7
6
23
Falcons
1
17
0
7
25
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
291
Total Plays
75
44
Yards / Play
4.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.19
Passing Yards
226
--
Comp/Att
26/44(59%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.54
Rushing Yards
111
18
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
4.0
1.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-1.12
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-9.60
--
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
103
101
Penalty EPA
-12.44
-11.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
Falcons-6.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.1
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
166.4
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
24
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
11
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
22
20
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
19
4
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U