TBBuccaneers
5-2
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
5-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
7
0
21
Falcons
7
10
10
0
27
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
365
Total Plays
50
69
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.20
Passing Yards
182
--
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.34
Rushing Yards
96
130
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.40
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.70
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
53
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+256
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
23
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U