TBBuccaneers
1-9
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
5-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
7
0
17
Falcons
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
297
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
5.6
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.11
Passing Yards
245
222
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.09
Rushing Yards
73
75
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.06
-4.43
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-5
-36
Sack EPA
-2.63
-8.79
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
52
29
Penalty EPA
-9.51
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
23
13
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
18
9
Fumbles / Game
8
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U