TBBuccaneers
3-7
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
022
ATLFalcons
3-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
12
6
4
29
Falcons
10
0
3
9
22
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
337
Total Plays
62
81
Yards / Play
7.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
28/56(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.20
Rushing Yards
133
57
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.63
-8.54
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-14.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-7.92
-6.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+44.2
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
-22.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-13.5
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
26
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U