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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-7
35
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
22
ATLFalcons
3-7
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
12
6
4
29
Falcons
10
0
3
9
22

Spread

TB logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
446
337
Total Plays
62
81
Yards / Play
7.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
280
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
28/56(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.49
-0.20
Rushing Yards
133
57
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
46%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.63
-8.54
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-46
Sack EPA
--
-14.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-7.92
-6.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+44.6
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-13.5
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36
09/22
1.3
62
09/29
7.9
93
10/06
-5.7
17
10/13
-12.3
2
10/27
-1.6
42
11/03
3.8
78
11/10
-2.3
36
11/17
-3.8
26
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
12/30
5.2
81
09/08
1.7
66
09/15
-0.7
48
09/22
8.0
93
09/29
1.7
66
10/06
6.4
88
10/13
10.0
97
10/20
-8.5
7
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
1.5
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
26
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
23
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
25
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-4
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
-17
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-16
L
L
U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
-14
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-1
L
L
O
10/20
-27
L
L
U
10/27
-7
L
W
U
11/10
17
W
W
U
11/17
26
W
W
U