TBBuccaneers
4-11
24
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
045
ATLFalcons
9-6
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
5
6
18
Falcons
21
15
0
3
39
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
428
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
4.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.11
Passing Yards
261
--
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.04
Rushing Yards
35
251
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
2.3
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-20.13
-14.76
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-7.37
--
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
Falcons-10.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+303
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,362
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-50.8
Final Difference
267.5
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
29
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U