TBBuccaneers
6-9
22
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
13-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
10
9
0
22
Falcons
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
278
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
213
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.06
Rushing Yards
144
65
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
15
15
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-1.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
Falcons-3.0
Expected Value
+17.4%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
-45.2
Final Difference
149.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
9
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U