TBBuccaneers
8-8
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
030
ATLFalcons
6-10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
10
0
0
17
Falcons
10
0
10
10
30
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
222
382
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
4.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
208
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.22
Rushing Yards
86
174
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.19
-5.61
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-7.19
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model58.0%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.6
Home QB Adjustment
-40.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
55.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-40.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
32
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
22
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
15
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
8
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
20
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U