TBBuccaneers
4-8
14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
12 mph
41
JAXJaguars
3-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
7
0
0
14
Jaguars
0
22
0
13
35
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
325
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.11
Passing Yards
170
209
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.67
-0.10
Rushing Yards
110
116
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-21.37
+3.03
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-8.43
-2.86
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
97
80
Penalty EPA
-13.05
-3.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
-12.4
Final Difference
-45.2
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
29
15
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
17
24
Jaguars Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
32
30
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
32
30
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U