TBBuccaneers
2-8
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
021
DETLions
6-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
8
0
7
18
Lions
0
14
7
0
21
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
390
Total Plays
49
72
Yards / Play
4.7
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.19
Passing Yards
207
286
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.26
Rushing Yards
22
104
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
0.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
25
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-24.53
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-40
-11
Sack EPA
-6.65
-2.98
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
67
39
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Lions-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-55.2
Final Difference
180.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
24
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
4
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U