TBBuccaneers
2-10
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
8-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
7
17
Lions
7
10
10
7
34
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
407
Total Plays
59
69
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.08
Passing Yards
207
294
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.45
Rushing Yards
26
113
Rush Attempts
14
31
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.69
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
--
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.30
--
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-43
-17
Sack EPA
-9.39
-7.39
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
50
122
Penalty EPA
-0.65
-12.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
15
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U