TBBuccaneers
6-7
38
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
017
DETLions
3-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
14
7
3
8
32
Lions
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
495
295
Total Plays
73
63
Yards / Play
6.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.33
Passing Yards
446
250
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.60
-0.52
Rushing Yards
49
45
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
1.7
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.91
-16.20
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.56
-3.59
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-1.88
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-135.9
Home QB Adjustment
-130.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-77.3
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-130.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
23
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
26
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
32
30
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
21
18
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U