TBBuccaneers
6-7
34
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph
20
GBPackers
6-7
TBD
Lambeau Field
42°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
10
14
7
34
Packers
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
321
Total Plays
60
58
Yards / Play
7.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.05
Passing Yards
353
261
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
12.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.84
+0.10
Rushing Yards
99
60
Rush Attempts
27
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.69
-3.95
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-28
-23
Sack EPA
-10.43
-5.08
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
52
31
Penalty EPA
-4.26
-4.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
20
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
31
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
14
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
14
18
Fumbles / Game
5
4
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U