TBBuccaneers
1-0
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
89°F
4 mph
7
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
89°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
7
3
3
20
Panthers
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
278
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
159
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.20
Rushing Yards
95
119
Rush Attempts
34
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.93
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-9.96
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U