TBBuccaneers
0-1
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
85°F
3 mph
14
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
85°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
3
20
Panthers
3
6
3
0
12
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
352
Total Plays
59
73
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.19
Passing Yards
189
313
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
25/51(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.08
Rushing Yards
100
39
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.69
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.02
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-20
Sack EPA
-3.58
-4.66
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
66
50
Penalty EPA
-10.69
-4.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,419
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-4-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U