TBBuccaneers
3-3
3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
021
CARPanthers
1-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
0
3
3
Panthers
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
343
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
4.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
276
170
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.24
Rushing Yards
46
173
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-1.83
-2.36
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.47
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model84.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-264
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.7
Home QB Adjustment
-63.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-296.0
Model Spread
+12.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U