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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 7, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-3
3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0
21
CARPanthers
1-5
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
0
3
3
Panthers
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

CAR logo
+13

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
322
343
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
4.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.15
Passing Yards
276
170
Comp/Att
32/49(65%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.24
Rushing Yards
46
173
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-1.83
-2.36
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.47
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model84.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-264
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.7
Home QB Adjustment
-63.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-296.0
Model Spread
+12.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
01/02
6.0
87
01/09
8.8
94
01/16
1.7
66
01/23
-1.1
44
09/11
-1.8
39
09/18
-2.1
36
09/25
2.4
72
10/02
9.9
96
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
P. Walker headshot

P. Walker

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.0
19
11/14
-1.9
39
10/16
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
12
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
4
W
L
O
01/09
24
W
W
O
01/16
16
W
W
O
01/23
-3
L
L
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/09
-22
L
L
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U