TBBuccaneers
5-4
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
9 mph
21
CARPanthers
2-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
10
0
0
11
6
27
Panthers
1
7
0
7
0
15
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
331
Total Plays
78
65
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.10
Passing Yards
238
234
Comp/Att
25/47(53%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.23
Rushing Yards
167
97
Rush Attempts
30
34
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
39%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.19
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-1.71
-2.98
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
50
91
Penalty EPA
-15.23
-9.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
9
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U