TBBuccaneers
1-10
6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
43°F
7 mph
16
CARPanthers
4-7
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
43°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
6
0
0
6
Panthers
10
0
3
3
16
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
309
Total Plays
72
54
Yards / Play
6.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
315
152
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.02
Rushing Yards
154
157
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
5
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.13
-5.14
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-9
Sack EPA
-2.02
-1.56
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
50
37
Penalty EPA
-4.05
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-55.8
Home QB Adjustment
-29.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.6
Market Regression
-57.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-29.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U