TBBuccaneers
3-8
6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
2 mph
27
CARPanthers
8-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
6
0
0
0
6
Panthers
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
206
426
Total Plays
46
63
Yards / Play
4.5
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.08
Passing Yards
140
--
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.24
Rushing Yards
66
163
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
10%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.96
-8.43
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-40
--
Sack EPA
-9.39
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Panthers-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-44.8
Final Difference
180.2
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
9
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
5
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U