TBBuccaneers
5-6
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
13
3
26
Panthers
3
10
3
7
0
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
367
Total Plays
77
68
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
209
289
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.10
Rushing Yards
236
78
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.12
-4.53
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-6.42
-1.39
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
54
62
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-5.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model74.2%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-6.5
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-223
Home nfelo
1,315
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+22.3
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+32.0
Market Regression
-0.9
Final Difference
-183.6
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U