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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
5-6
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
7 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
13
3
26
Panthers
3
10
3
7
0
23

Spread

CAR logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
445
367
Total Plays
77
68
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
209
289
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.10
Rushing Yards
236
78
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
6.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
40%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.12
-4.53
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-6.42
-1.39
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
54
62
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-5.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model74.2%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-222
Home nfelo
1,313
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+22.1
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-39.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+32.0
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
-183.2
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Value
Ptile
09/15
-3.7
24
09/22
-7.5
7
09/29
6.6
87
10/03
5.7
82
10/13
5.2
80
10/21
4.7
78
10/27
5.9
84
11/04
3.3
71
11/10
-2.8
29
11/24
8.5
94
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Value
Ptile
12/17
-3.8
25
12/24
3.9
75
12/31
-13.1
1
01/07
-5.1
19
09/08
-10.0
2
09/15
-6.4
11
10/27
-1.9
35
11/03
-2.9
28
11/10
-0.6
45
11/24
1.1
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32

EPA

EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
7
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3

EPA

EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
7
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-19
L
L
U
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/13
24
W
W
O
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/24
23
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-23
L
L
U
09/22
14
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
O
10/06
-26
L
L
O
10/13
-18
L
L
O
10/20
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
1
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O