TBBuccaneers
4-10
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
9 mph
48
CARPanthers
5-9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
6
16
Panthers
10
10
21
7
48
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
433
Total Plays
61
49
Yards / Play
5.2
8.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.47
Passing Yards
258
163
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
12/17(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.64
Rushing Yards
59
270
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
8.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
45%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
11
6
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.89
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-4.33
-1.73
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
64
77
Penalty EPA
-7.96
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model71.8%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+7.5
Expected Value
+10.6%
Cover Probability
57.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.7
Home QB Adjustment
+31.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.3
Market Regression
+0.6
Final Difference
162.1
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U