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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-10
16
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
9 mph
48
CARPanthers
5-9
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
51°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
0
6
16
Panthers
10
10
21
7
48

Spread

CAR logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
317
433
Total Plays
61
49
Yards / Play
5.2
8.8
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.47
Passing Yards
258
163
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
12/17(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.64
Rushing Yards
59
270
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
8.7
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
20
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
45%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
11
6
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.89
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-4.33
-1.73
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
64
77
Penalty EPA
-7.96
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model71.9%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,394
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.7
Home QB Adjustment
+31.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.3
Market Regression
+1.0
Final Difference
162.9
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Value
Ptile
10/03
5.4
83
10/09
-7.9
6
10/16
4.6
80
10/23
-5.2
17
11/06
5.4
83
11/13
-8.7
4
11/20
4.4
78
11/27
-3.7
27
12/11
-4.9
19
12/17
-0.4
49
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
Value
Ptile
10/09
2.8
71
10/16
-1.7
38
10/23
6.4
87
10/30
7.0
90
11/13
-4.7
20
11/20
1.7
64
11/27
2.5
70
12/04
7.4
92
12/11
-1.1
43
12/18
4.3
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
1
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
7
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-45
L
L
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
L
U
11/06
-11
L
L
U
11/13
-28
L
L
O
11/20
-9
L
W
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-19
L
L
O
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
13
W
W
O
10/30
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-27
L
L
U
11/20
-14
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
19
W
W
O
12/11
-8
L
L
O
12/18
15
W
W
U