TBBuccaneers
8-8
9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
19 mph
0
CARPanthers
2-14
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
6
0
3
9
Panthers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
199
Total Plays
64
50
Yards / Play
3.6
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.42
Passing Yards
115
68
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
11/18(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.73
Rushing Yards
113
131
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
11
Passing 1st downs
6
2
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.24
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-26
Sack EPA
-4.82
-10.50
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.3
Home QB Adjustment
-37.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-37.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U