TBBuccaneers
0-2
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
9 mph
23
NEPatriots
2-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
0
0
3
Patriots
0
17
3
3
23
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
358
Total Plays
66
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
226
202
Comp/Att
19/41(46%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.09
Rushing Yards
97
156
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.23
-4.33
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-3.18
-5.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
48
50
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.9%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,648
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
199.5
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U