nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ patriots week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
0-2
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
9 mph
23
NEPatriots
2-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
65°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
0
0
3
Patriots
0
17
3
3
23

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
323
358
Total Plays
66
72
Yards / Play
4.9
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
226
202
Comp/Att
19/41(46%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.09
Rushing Yards
97
156
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.23
-4.33
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-3.18
-5.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
48
50
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+229
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
193.3
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Value
Ptile
11/11
2.7
67
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
-0.4
47
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-3.5
27
12/16
-9.7
2
12/23
-7.0
9
12/30
-1.4
39
09/08
-4.6
21
09/15
-5.6
16
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
11/22
11.4
98
12/02
-4.6
20
12/10
9.1
94
12/16
2.9
69
12/23
-3.8
26
12/30
4.2
76
01/13
8.4
93
01/20
-0.1
49
09/08
-1.9
40
09/12
-1.8
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15

EPA

EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
13
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
16
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
8
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
10
W
W
O
11/18
6
W
W
O
11/25
-1
L
P
U
12/02
-8
L
W
O
12/09
-2
L
L
U
12/16
-41
L
L
U
12/23
-15
L
L
U
12/30
5
W
W
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
30
W
W
O
12/02
7
W
P
U
12/10
28
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
7
W
L
U
12/30
28
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
-15
L
L
U
09/08
2
W
L
U
09/12
3
W
L
U