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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ raiders week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
3-4
42
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
7 mph
32
OAKRaiders
3-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
21
14
42
Raiders
3
7
0
22
32

Spread

TB logo
+1

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
515
426
Total Plays
63
76
Yards / Play
8.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.08
Passing Yards
237
404
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
40/63(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.00
Rushing Yards
278
22
Rush Attempts
32
11
Yards / Rush
8.7
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.48
-11.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-16
Sack EPA
-2.23
-2.67
Penalties
14
9
Penalty Yards
116
80
Penalty EPA
-9.98
-9.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
12/17
-0.4
49
12/24
2.3
68
01/01
0.0
52
09/09
-2.2
34
09/16
-3.2
28
09/23
-8.7
5
09/30
1.2
58
10/14
4.8
80
10/21
7.1
90
10/25
2.3
64
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
7.0
90
12/24
-0.7
47
01/01
8.0
94
09/10
2.7
66
09/16
2.3
63
09/23
4.2
76
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
9
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
24
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Raiders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
18
9
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
28
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-32
L
L
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
U
09/16
-7
L
W
O
09/23
-6
L
W
U
09/30
-2
L
L
O
10/14
28
W
W
O
10/21
-7
L
L
O
10/25
19
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-1
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U
09/16
-22
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O