TBBuccaneers
3-4
42
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
7 mph
32
OAKRaiders
3-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
21
14
42
Raiders
3
7
0
22
32
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
515
426
Total Plays
63
76
Yards / Play
8.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.08
Passing Yards
237
404
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
40/63(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.00
Rushing Yards
278
22
Rush Attempts
32
11
Yards / Rush
8.7
2.0
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.48
-11.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-16
Sack EPA
-2.23
-2.67
Penalties
14
9
Penalty Yards
116
80
Penalty EPA
-9.98
-9.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
24
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
31
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
18
9
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U