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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ rams week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-10
13
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
23
LARRams
6-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
3
0
13
Rams
0
14
3
6
23

Spread

LAR logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
170
277
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
3.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.04
Passing Yards
111
148
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
16/20(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.22
Rushing Yards
59
129
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-8.88
-9.36
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-47
-10
Sack EPA
-13.05
-1.65
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-45.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
0.7
55
10/20
0.6
54
10/24
-0.2
48
11/03
2.3
66
11/11
-5.4
17
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11
12/15
-4.3
23
K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-45.3
Value
Ptile
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
11/10
0.9
56
11/24
-3.9
25
12/01
-3.0
32
12/08
-7.7
9
12/15
2.6
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9

EPA

EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
24
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
27
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
26
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
12/08
-20
L
L
U
12/15
11
W
W
U