TBBuccaneers
4-10
13
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
023
LARRams
6-8
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
3
0
13
Rams
0
14
3
6
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
170
277
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
3.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.04
Passing Yards
111
148
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
16/20(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.22
Rushing Yards
59
129
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-8.88
-9.36
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-47
-10
Sack EPA
-13.05
-1.65
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-45.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-45.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
27
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U