TBBuccaneers
-
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
034
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
10
6
23
Saints
0
17
1
10
28
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
271
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
4.7
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.07
Passing Yards
224
189
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
86
82
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.50
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-4.24
-2.53
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
103
--
Penalty EPA
-12.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
122.3
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U