TBBuccaneers
0-1
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
019
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
13
3
26
Saints
0
7
0
12
19
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
323
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
5.6
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.24
Passing Yards
194
219
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.29
Rushing Yards
139
104
Rush Attempts
35
27
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.45
-13.14
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-36
Sack EPA
-7.95
-7.05
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
90
115
Penalty EPA
-5.20
-7.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
-19.7
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U