TBBuccaneers
1-3
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
037
NOSaints
1-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
8
7
0
25
Saints
6
7
7
9
6
35
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
511
Total Plays
54
87
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
248
--
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
35/58(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.03
Rushing Yards
66
140
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
34
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.53
-13.55
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
+0.33
--
Penalties
15
6
Penalty Yards
113
50
Penalty EPA
-0.13
-5.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+258
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+66.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
-55.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-55.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U