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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ saints week 5, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-3
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
37
NOSaints
1-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
8
7
0
25
Saints
6
7
7
9
6
35

Spread

TB logo
+11

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
314
511
Total Plays
54
87
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.09
Passing Yards
248
--
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
35/58(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.03
Rushing Yards
66
140
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
20
34
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.53
-13.55
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
+0.33
--
Penalties
15
6
Penalty Yards
113
50
Penalty EPA
-0.13
-5.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+254
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+66.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
-55.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-55.5
Value
Ptile
11/03
2.3
66
11/11
-5.4
17
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11
12/15
-4.3
23
12/22
-9.2
5
12/29
-1.8
40
09/28
0.2
50
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
9.5
95
12/15
3.2
72
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55
09/21
5.8
85
09/28
5.4
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
30
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18

EPA

EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
7
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
09/28
3
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
18
W
W
U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O
09/21
11
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O