TBBuccaneers
5-2
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
03
NOSaints
1-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
1
10
6
17
Saints
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
275
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
3.8
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.48
Passing Yards
124
227
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
32/51(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.53
Rushing Yards
88
48
Rush Attempts
29
15
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.23
-21.82
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-28
-37
Sack EPA
-6.90
-8.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-2.84
-5.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-135
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+34.5
Final Difference
-100.5
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
29
15
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
5
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
8
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U