TBBuccaneers
4-3
16
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
5-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
3
10
16
Saints
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
453
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.15
Passing Yards
281
--
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.24
Rushing Yards
84
195
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.0
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.29
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.40
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
80
63
Penalty EPA
-9.76
-10.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
-3.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U