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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ saints week 9, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-3
16
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
27
NOSaints
5-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
3
10
16
Saints
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

NO logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
365
453
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.15
Passing Yards
281
--
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.24
Rushing Yards
84
195
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.0
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.29
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.40
--
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
80
63
Penalty EPA
-9.76
-10.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
-3.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
12/19
1.8
59
12/26
9.9
97
01/02
4.7
81
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
1.1
60
09/25
0.1
52
10/03
5.4
83
10/09
-7.9
6
10/16
4.6
80
10/23
-5.2
17
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
01/02
-3.5
26
01/08
8.7
95
09/08
9.7
96
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
12.3
98
10/30
-5.3
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
18
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
5
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
6
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-3
L
L
P
12/26
23
W
W
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
L
O
10/09
-45
L
L
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-10
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
O
09/08
-8
L
L
O
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
55
W
W
O
10/30
-10
L
L
O