TBBuccaneers
6-7
0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
041
NOSaints
5-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
0
0
0
Saints
7
17
7
10
41
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
447
Total Plays
72
65
Yards / Play
5.4
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.26
Passing Yards
319
298
Comp/Att
30/54(56%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.32
Rushing Yards
67
149
Rush Attempts
16
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-22.40
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-9
Sack EPA
-6.45
-2.24
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
84
55
Penalty EPA
-9.28
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.0
Home QB Adjustment
-28.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-28.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
9
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
26
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U