TBBuccaneers
2-12
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
017
NOSaints
13-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
0
8
3
14
Saints
14
3
0
0
0
17
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
373
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
263
249
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
32/37(86%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.04
Rushing Yards
176
124
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
58%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.67
-3.50
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-3.77
-2.43
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-6.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
Saints-14.0
Expected Value
+3.9%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+380
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
-20.8
Final Difference
344.2
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
24
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U