TBBuccaneers
9-6
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
013
NOSaints
11-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
10
3
23
Saints
7
0
3
3
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
305
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
5.9
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.08
Passing Yards
233
199
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.04
Rushing Yards
84
106
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-7.79
-11.29
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-13
Sack EPA
-2.62
-4.93
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
54
45
Penalty EPA
-3.26
-6.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+201
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+31.4
Market Regression
-53.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
30
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
7
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
22
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U