TBBuccaneers
4-11
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
042
NOSaints
10-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
7
3
0
17
Saints
14
14
7
7
42
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
468
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
4.7
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.28
Passing Yards
215
370
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
11.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.81
Rushing Yards
75
98
Rush Attempts
18
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
23%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.90
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-4
-11
Sack EPA
-0.01
-1.66
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
78
94
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-4.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+275
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-52.6
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
2
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U