TBBuccaneers
0-7
24
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
4 mph
27
SEASeahawks
7-1
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
0
21
3
0
0
24
Seahawks
0
7
7
10
3
27
Spread
+16.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
415
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.16
Passing Yards
145
--
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.22
Rushing Yards
205
198
Rush Attempts
38
35
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.82
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-5.54
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
99
67
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-12.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+370
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.7
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
26
1
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
6
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
21
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U