TBBuccaneers
1-12
24
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
12 mph
7
SEASeahawks
5-8
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
3
18
3
24
Seahawks
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
380
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
252
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.21
Rushing Yards
136
128
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.04
-15.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-0.82
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-6.5
Expected Value
+12.3%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
180.0
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
28
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
24
9
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U