TBBuccaneers
0-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
74°F
3 mph
24
PITSteelers
2-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
74°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
0
7
10
27
Steelers
10
7
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
390
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.05
Passing Yards
287
305
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.30
Rushing Yards
63
85
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-3.69
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-15
-26
Sack EPA
-1.93
-8.89
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
50
125
Penalty EPA
-4.79
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model79.7%
Spread Pick
Steelers-7.0
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+299
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
-63.2
Market Regression
-15.2
Final Difference
238.1
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
27
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
21
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U