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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ steelers week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
0-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
74°F
3 mph
24
PITSteelers
2-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
74°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
0
7
10
27
Steelers
10
7
7
0
24

Spread

TB logo
+7

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
350
390
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.05
Passing Yards
287
305
Comp/Att
21/43(49%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.30
Rushing Yards
63
85
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-3.69
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-15
-26
Sack EPA
-1.93
-8.89
Penalties
9
13
Penalty Yards
50
125
Penalty EPA
-4.79
-5.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model79.7%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+299
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
-63.2
Market Regression
-15.2
Final Difference
238.1
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.2
Value
Ptile
10/24
-0.2
48
11/03
2.3
66
11/11
-5.4
17
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11
12/15
-4.3
23
12/22
-9.2
5
12/29
-1.8
40
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
9.5
95
11/24
3.5
74
11/28
6.7
89
12/08
6.3
87
12/15
0.9
56
12/22
1.2
58
12/29
-4.4
22
09/07
1.6
63
09/11
-3.9
27
09/21
3.8
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
27
EPA / Pass
27
25
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
32
RZ Efficiency
18
19
Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Steelers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
21
10
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
20
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
-2
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
L
O
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
7
W
W
O
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
3
W
L
O
09/11
-20
L
L
U
09/21
18
W
W
O