TBBuccaneers
3-2
18
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
020
PITSteelers
1-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
6
3
6
18
Steelers
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
270
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
4.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
229
193
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.25
Rushing Yards
75
77
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-18
Sack EPA
-2.25
-3.46
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
42
45
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-4.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-235
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
-33.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-33.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
14
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
8
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
32
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
24
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
24
16
Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
3
25
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U