TBBuccaneers
1-1
9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
0-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
9
0
0
9
Texans
7
0
3
9
19
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
413
Total Plays
56
86
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.04
Rushing Yards
57
186
Rush Attempts
20
46
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
30
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
8%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-4.90
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-0.76
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
84
58
Penalty EPA
-12.83
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
4
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
13
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
17
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
28
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
27
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U