TBBuccaneers
4-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
47°F
20 mph
23
TENTitans
5-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
47°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
1
0
11
Titans
7
3
0
13
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
352
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
5.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.31
-0.18
Passing Yards
186
150
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.44
Rushing Yards
122
202
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
20%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
4
2
Turnover EPA
-17.45
-18.03
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-5.73
-2.65
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
50
Penalty EPA
-2.78
-4.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
29
24
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Titans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
17
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U