TBBuccaneers
2-4
36
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
017
MINVikings
5-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
10
10
6
36
Vikings
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
369
Total Plays
79
59
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.20
Passing Yards
257
229
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.24
Rushing Yards
159
140
Rush Attempts
41
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.96
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-1.76
-3.56
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
49
32
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+88
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-40.4
Final Difference
122.1
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
16
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
15
24
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
24
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
17
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U