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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 1, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
-
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
6 mph
20
SF49ers
-
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
0
14
24
49ers
10
3
0
7
20

Spread

SF logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
404
366
Total Plays
78
61
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
224
243
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.01
Rushing Yards
180
123
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.11
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-2.41
-4.22
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
102
53
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-7.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.8%
Cover Probability
59.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-317.7
Final Difference
-143.1
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
10/20
-5.2
19
10/27
-5.1
19
10/31
5.0
84
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
12/29
1.4
64
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
11/17
6.7
89
11/24
0.6
56
12/01
-0.5
49
12/08
5.9
86
12/15
-1.3
44
12/21
-8.3
8
12/29
0.5
55
01/11
-5.1
20
01/19
-4.5
22
02/02
-2.8
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8

EPA

EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
3
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
9
9
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
22
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
7
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
6
W
W
U
10/27
-22
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
12/29
-7
L
P
O
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
10
W
P
O
11/24
29
W
W
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
2
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
P
01/11
17
W
W
U
01/19
17
W
W
O
02/02
-11
L
L
U