ARICardinals
-
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
6 mph
20
SF49ers
-
TBD
Levi's Stadium
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
0
14
24
49ers
10
3
0
7
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
366
Total Plays
78
61
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
224
243
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.01
Rushing Yards
180
123
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.11
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-2.41
-4.22
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
102
53
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-7.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.5
Expected Value
+12.8%
Cover Probability
59.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
-317.9
Final Difference
-142.7
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
3
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
23
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
9
9
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U