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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 6, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-2
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
5 mph
32
SF49ers
3-2
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
6
0
20
49ers
6
14
0
10
30

Spread

SF logo
-10

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
403
387
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
294
238
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.04
Rushing Yards
109
149
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.13
-8.53
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-0.41
-6.08
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
38
35
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-2.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
233.1
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/23
1.1
57
12/30
5.2
82
01/12
17.8
100
01/20
3.3
71
02/03
5.2
82
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
24
6
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1

EPA

EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
17
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
16
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-1
L
W
U
12/09
-58
L
L
O
12/16
28
W
W
O
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-29
L
L
O
12/30
14
W
L
O
01/12
14
W
W
O
01/20
4
W
W
O
02/03
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U