ARICardinals
3-2
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
5 mph
32
SF49ers
3-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
6
0
20
49ers
6
14
0
10
30
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
387
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
294
238
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.04
Rushing Yards
109
149
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-18.13
-8.53
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-4
-14
Sack EPA
-0.41
-6.08
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
38
35
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-2.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+188
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-7.2
Final Difference
233.0
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
24
6
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U