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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-6
7
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
15 mph
23
SF49ers
8-1
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
7
7
49ers
6
3
14
0
23

Spread

SF logo
-10

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
229
431
Total Plays
48
87
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.02
Passing Yards
149
--
Comp/Att
14/35(40%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.13
Rushing Yards
80
164
Rush Attempts
11
49
Yards / Rush
7.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
21
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.12
+1.20
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
75
87
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-10.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-31.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-31.4
Value
Ptile
12/12
-5.3
16
12/19
-5.2
16
12/25
-1.5
40
01/02
-8.0
7
11/06
1.0
60
11/13
-0.8
46
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
-3.8
26
09/25
-3.9
25
10/02
2.7
71
10/09
3.7
75
10/16
-5.5
16
10/30
2.2
67
11/06
0.6
56
11/13
0.8
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1

EPA

EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
9
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
14
4
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
14
8
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
30
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/09
-24
L
L
U
10/23
-12
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
4
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
9-0-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
31
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
P
O
09/25
5
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
45
W
W
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/30
10
W
W
U
11/06
8
W
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
O