ARICardinals
3-6
7
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
15 mph
23
SF49ers
8-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
55°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
7
7
49ers
6
3
14
0
23
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
431
Total Plays
48
87
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.02
Passing Yards
149
--
Comp/Att
14/35(40%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.13
Rushing Yards
80
164
Rush Attempts
11
49
Yards / Rush
7.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
21
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.12
+1.20
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-1.29
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
75
87
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-10.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-31.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-31.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
14
4
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
14
8
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
30
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
9-0-1
ATS
6-4
O/U