ARICardinals
3-6
26
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
036
SF49ers
8-1
TBD
Levi's Stadium
72°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
9
7
3
7
26
49ers
0
10
7
13
30
Spread
10
P
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
442
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
4.3
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.10
Passing Yards
131
408
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.27
Rushing Yards
135
34
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
5.4
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
30%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-10.13
-11.29
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-19
-16
Sack EPA
-4.76
-3.83
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
104
127
Penalty EPA
-11.13
-13.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.4%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+18.4
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
-22.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.9
Net QB Adjustment
-27.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-17.1
Final Difference
224.4
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
30
27
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
2
23
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
19
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-6-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U