ARICardinals
8-4
9
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
024
SF49ers
5-7
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
3
6
9
49ers
10
7
0
7
24
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
327
Total Plays
51
72
Yards / Play
4.8
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.09
Passing Yards
160
138
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.34
Rushing Yards
85
189
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.35
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
6
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
7
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
5
0
Turnover EPA
-24.13
-9.24
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-18
-6
Sack EPA
-5.26
-1.32
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
78
55
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-4.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-39.3
Home QB Adjustment
-20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
-38.4
Final Difference
-106.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
2
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
20
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U