ARICardinals
5-10
7
TBD
Candlestick Park
49°F
3 mph
38
SF49ers
5-10
TBD
Candlestick Park
49°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
0
7
49ers
7
3
21
1
32
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
362
Total Plays
81
56
Yards / Play
3.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.05
Passing Yards
201
262
Comp/Att
30/53(57%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.22
Rushing Yards
78
100
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
20
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.62
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-41
-14
Sack EPA
-7.78
-2.55
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
43
25
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-2.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,328
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Skelton
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
29
9
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U