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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ARI logo
ARICardinals
5-10
7
TBD
Candlestick Park
49°F
3 mph
38
SF49ers
5-10
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
49°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
0
0
7
49ers
7
3
21
1
32

Spread

SF logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
279
362
Total Plays
81
56
Yards / Play
3.4
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.05
Passing Yards
201
262
Comp/Att
30/53(57%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.22
Rushing Yards
78
100
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
20
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.62
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-41
-14
Sack EPA
-7.78
-2.55
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
43
25
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-2.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,327
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-40.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Skelton headshot

J. Skelton

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
12/12
-5.3
16
12/19
-5.2
16
12/25
-1.5
40
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
01/03
-2.0
39
09/12
-5.8
13
09/20
3.9
75
09/26
-5.8
14
10/03
-2.5
32
10/10
4.3
78
10/17
-1.6
40
10/24
-1.2
42
12/12
4.4
78
12/16
-6.5
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
29
9
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-12
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-18
L
L
O
11/21
-18
L
L
U
11/29
-21
L
L
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
30
W
W
O
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/25
1
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
8
W
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/14
3
W
L
O
11/21
-21
L
L
U
11/29
21
W
W
U
12/05
-18
L
L
O
12/12
19
W
W
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/26
-8
L
L
O