ARICardinals
5-10
13
TBD
Candlestick Park
50°F
5 mph
27
SF49ers
10-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
0
7
13
49ers
0
7
10
10
27
Spread
+16.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
407
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.10
Passing Yards
207
278
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.56
Rushing Yards
55
129
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.54
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
-3.10
-1.11
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
25
Penalty EPA
-6.55
+2.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+351
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.6
Market Regression
+45.1
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
No recent game data available
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
31
27
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U