ARICardinals
4-12
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
2 mph
38
SF49ers
12-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
6
7
0
0
13
49ers
7
14
17
0
38
Spread
-14.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
311
Total Plays
50
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.06
Passing Yards
194
142
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.30
Rushing Yards
61
169
Rush Attempts
20
37
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.58
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-15
-36
Sack EPA
-8.47
-7.19
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
50
10
Penalty EPA
-6.11
-1.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+343
Home nfelo
1,680
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.9
Home QB Adjustment
-80.4
Away QB Adjustment
-132.3
Market Regression
+44.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-132.3
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-80.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
1
Yards / Game
22
2
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
15
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
11
20
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
31
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U