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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ bears week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-3
41
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
4-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
17
3
7
41
Bears
7
0
0
14
21

Spread

ARI logo
+2

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
438
417
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.35
-0.03
Passing Yards
256
347
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.01
Rushing Yards
182
70
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
57%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-3.81
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-0.76
-5.76
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
15
89
Penalty EPA
-1.12
-9.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
01/10
1.4
62
01/18
10.2
98
02/01
10.6
98
09/13
-3.5
28
09/20
8.0
92
09/27
-2.4
35
10/11
6.3
87
10/18
4.8
81
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-6.5
13
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
12/14
-2.7
29
12/21
6.1
88
12/28
2.2
67
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78
10/04
1.2
57
10/18
3.0
69
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-4.3
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Cardinals logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bears logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
21
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
25
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-5-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
20
W
W
P
01/18
7
W
W
P
02/01
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-21
L
L
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
3
W
P
P
12/22
3
W
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O
10/04
24
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-35
L
L
O
11/01
24
W
W
U