ARICardinals
4-3
41
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
4-3
TBD
Soldier Field
65°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
17
3
7
41
Bears
7
0
0
14
21
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
417
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.35
-0.03
Passing Yards
256
347
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.01
Rushing Yards
182
70
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
57%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
83%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-3.81
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-0.76
-5.76
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
15
89
Penalty EPA
-1.12
-9.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
21
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
25
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-5-3
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-4-3
O/U