ARICardinals
3-11
16
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
4 mph
27
CHIBears
5-9
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
3
6
16
Bears
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
420
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.14
Passing Yards
213
170
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.13
Rushing Yards
93
250
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.83
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.15
-0.54
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
8
35
Penalty EPA
-2.66
-4.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-51.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+48.2
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+48.2
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U