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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ bears week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-11
16
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
4 mph
27
CHIBears
5-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
52°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
3
6
16
Bears
7
14
3
3
27

Spread

CHI logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
306
420
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.14
Passing Yards
213
170
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.13
Rushing Yards
93
250
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.83
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.15
-0.54
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
8
35
Penalty EPA
-2.66
-4.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,340
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-51.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+48.2
Market Regression
+50.6
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+48.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
1.3
61
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12
10/01
7.1
91
10/05
5.7
84
10/15
-8.7
6
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Cardinals logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
15
1
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
5
31
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bears logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
23
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
25
31
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
14
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-14
L
L
O
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-7
L
W
U
11/09
3
W
P
U
11/19
-5
L
W
O
11/27
2
W
W
U
12/10
15
W
W
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U